Arguing Kaplan

The promise of future prosperity for humanity is ascertained because of the combination of our innate collaborative spirit and technological advancements; despite Kaplan’s doomsday scenario to the contrary. Kaplan’s book provides a litany of predictions that underscore his premise of impending economic, social and environmental catastrophe on a global scale; ultimately causing fear of a resulting demise of the human race and all living things on the planet. 

Kaplan postulates that Africa is a model of the future. Her rampant disease, the utter destruction of her natural resources, and lawlessness, crime and tyranny have created an environment quickly on its way to becoming uninhabitable; all while the exponential growth of the population threatens whatever remaining delicate balance can be brought to bear on the realities of the situation. In Kaplan’s mind; Africa is the prototype which will spread and infect the rest of the civilized world.

However, challenges notwithstanding; one is able to pinpoint incontrovertible evidence that refutes Kaplan’s notions. That is not to say that the world as a whole, and Africa specifically, is not facing some formidable dilemmas; only that solutions to our problems are accessible. Therefore, for the purposes of this essay, we will counter Kaplan’s most alarming conjectures with sound and research-based substantiation that contradicts his concerns. 

Let us begin with the conjecture that disease is exploding across the continent and is beyond the ability to bring under control. Indeed, Kaplan has offered that a ‘wall of disease is creating an impenetrable boundary that is reverting medical advances back a century or more’; most notably HIV and malaria. The latter two are said to be reinventing themselves into antibiotic-resistant strains. Certainly, in light of a populace that struggles for basic survival, this phenomenon is not wholly unexpected. Yet, one cannot operate from the position that all is lost simply because it appears Africa is experiencing the old adage of ‘one step forward, two steps back’. If that were the position humanity embraced since its inception, we likely would not have ‘fire’ or the ‘wheel’ – so confounding was our ability to harness it for the betterment of mankind.  In fact, perhaps this is an appropriate place to interject that the historic nature of mankind has always been one of ‘struggle and overcome’ – always in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. This is humankind’s paradigm and a reality that we should not use as a measure by which we flog ourselves in despair; but rather utilize as the foundation of a resonating battle-cry.

Indeed, studies abound that confirm progress is made daily in annihilating nasty human afflictions – in Africa as well as other third-world countries. According to the esteemed World Health Organization a breadth of devastating illnesses are on the verge of eradication including guinea-worm disease (now limited to a small number of African principalities), leprosy, measles, neonatal tetanus, Chagas disease and more (1),  It would not be an exaggeration to state that hard-fought gains in health and life expectancy are the result of man’s ingenuity in the areas of biology and technology; and a willingness to set aside differences in the name of progress as a response to calamitous conditions. 

If one is inclined to doubt the veracity of the aforementioned claim he or she is urged to consider the following claim made by the World Health Organization. “Mass immunization campaigns which reach hundreds of millions of children in a few days have had a dramatic impact on the disease. Children have been reached in some of the remotest corners of the world. Health workers have used camels, horses, dug-out canoes, boats, and motor-bikes to get the vaccines through”.  In the face of what many would say are unbeatable disadvantages; the reader should be humbly heartened by what appears to be human perseverance continuing to ‘carry the day’.

Kaplan next drones on about Africa’s wholesale destruction of their once pristine environment; and the potential long-term consequences for the planet and humanity as a result. It would be inadvisable to pretend that Africa is not in the midst of ecological challenges to its land, water, and natural resources. Too, it would not be unfair to lay a good portion of the blame at the feet of the advanced world – although that is an aside to the heart of this observation. Yet, even as Kaplan’s claims can be found to have some validity; promising news continues to emerge from the land often recognized as the ‘cradle of civilization’. As recently as last year “scientists say the notoriously dry continent of Africa is sitting on a vast reservoir of groundwater. They argue that the total volume of water in aquifers underground is 100 times the amount found on the surface and have produced a detailed map of the location of this currently buried resource” (2). The fact that nearly 300 million Africans currently do not have access to safe drinking water serve to highlight the potential lifesaving capacity such a discovery holds. 

Also, there is other uplifting ecological news from Africa as well. For example, in the global clean energy sector “among the group of G-20 nations, South Africa was the fastest-growing market, with investment rising from less than $30 million in 2011 to $5.5 billion in 2012, a 20,500% increase” (3).  The source continues their commentary by pointing out that South Africa, after lengthy delays in the initiation of national clean energy programs, witnessed explosive growth in 2012; its solar sector attracting an impressive  $4.3 billion in 2012, or 80% of the total clean energy investment. Another $1.1 billion went to the nation's wind sector and ultimately this rapid investment growth has now positioned South Africa as the ninth-leading destination for clean energy investment.

If the previously iterated proof of environmental and medical advancements is not sufficient to motivate the skeptic to reconsider a negative world view; then perhaps a second look at the political and judicial conditions of this honorable nation would be motivational. Again, this writer will not pretend that Africa is facing grave social challenges that can be interpreted as a precursor to what Kaplan refers to as anarchy – his word, not mine – in this world of pessimistic assessment there is some optimistic news to report. 

We must agree that economic growth is the cornerstone to societal improvements; in which case, multiple economic indicators support this premise. According to one report “people, from The Economist to this blog, have been highlighting Africa's accelerated GDP growth of about 5 percent a year for the decade before the 2008-9 global economic crisis; and the two years since the crisis. But has this growth served to reduce poverty – well, the latest globally consistent estimate of poverty rates has an answer: Yes” (4).  Through the presentation of a variety of economic indicators the reader is led to understand that the rate of poverty in Africa is on the decline – if not at an inexorably incremental pace (5). Therefore, if African conditions are a harbinger for the future of humanity, I daresay this essay has provided ample evidence that it is one of hope and promise.

Endnotes

1. A. MacDonald, Quantitative maps of groundwater resources in Africa, Environmental Research Letters, 2012.

2. C. Shantas, Africa is rising: is poverty falling? 2012 <//blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/africa-is-rising-is-poverty-falling>

3. Pew Charitable Resources,. SA: fastest growing renewable market in G20 during 2012, http://www.sagoodnews.co.za/environment/sa_fastest_growing_renewable_market_in_g20_during_2012.html

4. World Health Organization, Infectious Disease Report.  Removing Obstacles to Healthy Development; 1999.

5. The Economist. Africa rising: the hopeful continent, 2011. Retrieved  at http://www.economist.com/node/21541015