Social Forecasting and Technology Assessment: An Overview

Introduction

As technology continues to evolve at an exponential rate and transform today’s global commerce and social environments, the impact of technology upon social functions and vice ver-as is becoming increasingly apparent. In light of this consideration, the following discussion will explore the meaning and purposes of both social forecasting and technology assessments as they relate to today’s globalized business environment. Future implications will also be explored. 

In setting the context for this discussion, it is important to recognize that an increasing body of empirical research is recognizing the integrated nature of technological assessment and social forecasting— an approach Russel, Vanclay and Aslin (2010) call TASC, or technology assessment in a social context. Because of the way technology is changing social interactions and, likewise, social interactions are determining the course of technology, assessments of technology cannot be effectively divorced from social forecasts. Similar to the approach taken by Russel et al. (2010), this discussion will take a constructive approach to understand the roles technology plays in social contexts (such as determining the nature of dialogues, interactions, and interpersonal relationships) and the way social contexts shape technological developments.

Social Forecasting

Concisely stated, social forecasting may be thought of as the gathering and compiling of expert knowledge, in a business context, in order to quantify and convert that knowledge into forecasts and key performance indicators. For instance, if a cell phone development company were to gather employee and/or other expert knowledge regarding a new products’ potential, that information could be compiled and quantitatively tabulated in order to forecast the potential, speculated performance of the new cell phone product. In this way, social forecasting is highly valuable within the context of strategic business planning. In many instances, social forecasting is modeled as crowdsourcing (Ivanov, 2011). In this way, the participants in the crowdsourcing are generally paid leads, voluntary participants or consumers of the product, or within the market that the product will be distributed. This enables forecasts based on crowdsourced data to be relevant and thus likely more strategically effective. 

In many cases, social forecasting is conducted using a company’s web applications through which participating users can access pre-specified topics and products and contribute corresponding sales forecasts. In this way, data can be efficiently captured, automatically input into large data-capturing databases and automatically tabulated. In many cases, participants actually contribute to what is known as “virtual play money” (Ivanov, 2011, p. 1) to the process. This serves as an instrument by which the company (and participants) may hypothetically measure the economic success of specific products. Furthermore, this process allows the data-gathering company to visualize and understand, virtually, how external and consumer social events may impact the success of various products. In this way, social forecasting can be used as a strategic planning tool within multiple points of a business’s supply chain, such as production and/or management. 

Technology Assessment

A technology assessment is known as an interactive and scientific process of communication intended to influence and mold political and public opinions of “social aspects of science and technology” (Banta, 2009, p. 7). In other words, technology assessments are communication methods that follow a rigid scientific process for the sake of speculating how future technologies might impact social and political opinions and decisions. Banta (2009) also defines technology assessments as “science and knowledge that is applied for a definite purpose” (p. 7). No doubt, this is a vague and general term, so as a more specific and relevant example, consider the following: assessments in health technology provide health policymakers with information that aids them in making more politically relevant decisions. As the Decision Resources Group (2018) reported, the recent NICE guidance TA474 was a political and legal measure advocating for Soraf-enib to be used in treating hepatocellular carcinoma. This NICE initiative was supported by technology assessment data gleaned through a study that validated the use and efficacy of Sorafenib. 

Clearly, technology assessments can be used for a multitude of purposes across diverse industries. As such, diversified approaches to these assessments have emerged, which are dependent upon the decisions required, the sponsoring firms, the underlying corporate initiatives, and political contexts. Essentially and in many ways, technology assessments assist policymakers and business executives in better managing technological and contextual uncertainties (Science Direct, 2018).

Role of Social Forecasting in Today’s Business Climate

The rationale for using social forecasting as a component of business forecasting is based upon the assumption that various social pressures, in part, determine organizational success within today’s increasingly global economy. As Krishnamurthy (2010) asserts, society is currently undergoing massive social, structural, economic and technological transformations, all of which will influence the course of action businesses will take during the coming years and decades. Hence, in order to remain competitive in a globalized climate, many researchers recommend businesses incorporate social forecasting into strategic positioning and planning. Sociologist Daniel Bell has contributed significant insight into the study and perceived relevance of social forecasting within business contexts. 

For instance, Bell’s post-industrial publication, the Coming of Post-Industrial Society, Bell describes our current society as the information society or information age. This assumption presumes that as a globe, we have evolved from a mere industrial society that primary values the production of goods and services, to a society that primarily values information, and the distribution and sharing of credible, quality, high-value information. As a result, those who can produce information are valued more highly than those who merely exercise general, manual labor. The implications of this assumption upon society and business suggest that the social contexts of to-morrow (as of today) will be increasingly determined by the sharing and creation of information (Krishnamurthy, 2010). This is already apparent through the way in which social media, which centers upon information sharing (credible or not), has influenced societal interactions.

As a consequence of this societal and technological evolution, large corporations including Best Buy, Syngenta, Henkel, and others have adopted social forecasting as a tool used in predicting KPIs (key performance indicators). For instance, Henkel used social forecasting sur-rounding single products to increase the company’s forecasting accuracy by 22%. This led to an enormous improvement within the company’s internal and functional production efficiency by making efforts geared towards products that were more relevant. Additionally, Syngenta used demand social forecasting (evaluating consumer demands) to predict warning signs in today’s extremely volatile agribusiness market. Furthermore, Best Buy used social forecasts surrounding existing and new products to improve future sales forecasts and sales outcomes. General Electric also employs social forecasting as a method to evaluate the potential efficacy and relevance of new tech ideas as they apply to different business units, which has resulted in up to six patients within each business unit (Ikanov, 2011).

In order to effectively execute social forecasting, a company must begin by understand-ing three primary factors: 1) the topic being forecasted or evaluated within a social context (such as organic versus non-organic food products), 2) the people being evaluated (such as consumers or policymakers— in other words, who will influence the outcome?), and 3) the incentives of the stakeholders mentioned in item (2) (such as consumers who are incentivized by changing social values and opinions such as the desire for more organic food products). These topics are separated categorically, but they also converge and influence one another following the structure of a triad-shaped Venn diagram. In this way, social forecasting can provide highly integrative and valuable information about the predicted KPIs of a product relative to the surrounding economic, political and social context.

Role of Technology Assessment in Today’s Business Climate

Just as social forecasting plays a critical role in the success and outlook of today's’ businesses, so too does technology and technology assessments. Because technology is playing an increasingly important role in all aspects of our lives, business management not excluded, technology assessments (that evaluate how well certain implemented technologies are performing specified functions) are becoming equally increasingly crucial. For example, technology serves multiple roles in business. Where technology used to be used for functions such as mere calculations decades ago, technology is now being implemented in many circumstances in ways that even replace human labor. In this way, the connection between social forecasting and technology begins to emerge: in other words, the fact that today’s industry is characterized by a value of information, rather than labor, becomes justified through this fact. Because of this, it becomes evident that these tech advancements are changing the way humans interact socially in business and personal contexts. 

One such example is the implementation of automated Go Sans checkouts by Amazon in new Whole Foods locations, such as the Seattle store. These checkouts replace the need for labor-intensive personal checkers. However, in order to ensure these technologies are serving their intended purpose and functioning advantageously for Amazon and Whole Foods, tech assessments are justified. 

Other examples of the ways in which technology serves business environments include: ensuring business security and the security of highly confidential, intellectual property and assets, the securing of management communications, the facilitation of streamlined, fast communication despite geographic distance, market research, and growth, and targeted ad reach. For example, platforms such as Upwork exemplify and mirror the changing social climate in which business is taking place. Upwork facilitates employers and freelancers to connect and engage in business transactions despite geographic distance. Tech assessments can aid in ensuring the continued success, based on continually updated strategy, of such technological platforms.

Functionally, technology assessments serve to help ensure any given business’s technological implementations, including those such as the aforementioned examples, are functioning smoothly and to the strategic advantage of the business. For instance, if communications be-tween an IT vendor and a corporation undertakes advancements without clearly understanding the network’s underlying construction, strengths, weaknesses, and other functional components, that business’s future outlook is left less certain. In other words, technology assessments are critical to ensure the success of a carefully planned strategy (Cooperative Systems, 2018). These assessments provide a means of fusing ideological and strategic goals with the practical, functional capabilities and aspects of various technologies in place. In this way, assessments can help managers understand what a company’s strengths are, what needs improvement, and subsequently, weigh options based upon informed data and facts. Hence, technology assessments can aid in improving a business’s internal employee performance, cohesion, collaboration, external sales, data gathering (such as social forecasting), gap closures, cost-efficacy, and data security. In light of this, it becomes increasingly apparent how the implementation of technological assessments can improve the accuracy and usability of a company’s social forecasting. Simply stated, if the right, reliable tech tools are used, data gathered is likely to be more trustworthy.

Most technology assessments are intended and structured as collaborations between IT vendors and a corporation requiring a more solid understanding of IT infrastructure. In better understanding IT infrastructure, that company can make more sound decisions related to security, workflow, external functions, and internal cost-savings. Finally, technology assessments are most useful when conducted in alignment with a corporation’s guiding business goals and missions.

The Convergence of Social Forecasting and Technology Assessment

In order to better understand the convergence of social forecasting (SF) and technology assessment (TA), it is helpful to recognize that TA emerged during the 1960s as a practice as well as a research field. In this way, TA itself is in many ways the product of society’s social trends that recognize and value the growth of and the role that technology plays within modern economics and business. At its core, TA was a social response to environmental concerns— specifically, the projected environmental impacts of technological and infrastructure developments. This demonstrates interconnectedness in the sense that TA originated, in many ways, as a result of social trends. Hence, this suggests that social forecasting could be used to understand future technological trends and their needed assessments and that likewise, TA can be examined in order to gain a better understanding of social values and trends. Originally, TA was also developed as a means of forecasting early warning signals that policymakers and politicians could use to anticipate (and avoid) technological malfunctions. However, Russel et al. (2010) recognize that ear-ly methods of TA were extremely limited in their ability, especially in regard to their ability to predict social changes and to recognize the political influences upon social values and technological goals. Consequently, TA, as well as social forecasting, have evolved dramatically over the years.

However, an enormous need still exists for researchers to explore the broad-scope social implications of TA in terms of political contexts. For instance, Russel et al. (2010) recommend that future research work to uncover how TA and SF can be used in tandem to understand the connections between disciplines such as policy making, public values or perception, public health, human rights, CSR and more. For example, numerous controversies exist today surrounding the use of technology in industries such as healthcare, yet in many ways, social norms and values are driving this tech-based evolution. 

Consider how SARs are being used in many Canadian and Chinese hospital settings to relieve nursing staff shortages. While this implementation of technology clearly reflects social trends and values that are mirrored by society’s increasing reliance upon technology, many patients (consumers) still feel apprehensive about trusting a robot, so to speak, with many aspects of their care. In a scenario such as this, TA can be used to evaluate how well SARs are performing their functions and enabling the provision of quality care, while SF can be used by companies that produce SARs to understand the potential market receptivity to future SARs integration and thus sales. This is but one example of how TA and SF can be used in tandem.

Research conducted by Hennen (2012) discusses the role of TA within democratic, social contexts, such as the US. In this way, Hennen (2012) relates and intertwines the concept of TA with SF by suggesting that public (social) participation is a critical and necessary part of effective TA in much the same way that participation is required for effective data gathering when con-ducting SF. Finally, Hennen (2012) argues that TA can effectively be used to increase public acceptance of mainstream technologies by educating the public on the strengths and advantages of various new technologies. Interestingly, this is an example of how TA may actually influence the social context that becomes apparent through SF. 

Future Implications

When considering the multitude of ways in which SF and TA may integrate, as briefly demonstrated by the aforementioned examples, it becomes clear that an equally numerous amount of future implications may be considered. To begin with, it seems clear that technology will only continue to play an increasing role in society, infiltrating more and more aspects and areas of human social life and commerce. With this in mind, it also seems critical that TA should be used in order to ensure this increasing infiltration of technology is being done in an adaptive and beneficial manner when it comes to human health, business health, and social functioning. This is where the TA comes into play. Socially, SF can be used to measure and understand not only KPI but the temperature, so to speak, of social contexts. Because of this, SF can be used to understand what technologies may be most successful within diverse political, social and cultural contexts. In this way, SF can be used to ensure the success of technology and subsequent TAs.

Examples of ways in which these two components may become increasingly integrated and intertwined in the future include the following. Amazon may continue to conduct TAs of its Go Sans checkouts and other in-store technology, while SF can be used to measure how receptive consumers, by demographics and location, will be to these various technologies. In this way, technologies can be implemented according to the SF results, which will likely mean that subsequent TAs will yield more plausible, successful results. For instance, based on simple social speculation, it seems likely that Go Sans checkouts would be most socially accepted (and expected) in high-tech environments such as the Seattle area, versus more rurally located Whole Foods. Hence, Amazon may continue to industrialize urban locations and will likely see beneficial results rather than customers being averted or intimidated by excessive technologies.

Another example relates to the prior-mentioned integration of SARs into hospital environments. Similarly, tech companies developing SARs would benefit from conducting SF to understand what geographic and demographic locations and groups are likely to be most receptive to SARs. Following, TAs could ensure the continued optimal functioning and performance of those SARs. Hence, as more and more technologies are developed, these two data collection and analysis methods will continue to play a critical role in strategic management.

Technology Future Analysis (2004) discusses the fact that not only is TA being used to understand the performance and infrastructure within existing technologies and technological systems, but TA is also being used to understand and predict the performance of future, speculated technologies in much the same way (though slightly more technical) that SF serves to predict future product performance and social / consumer contexts. This further increases the importance of SF and TA in the future business strategy. As Technology Future Analysis (2004) notes, multiple forms of TA can coexist, including tech intelligence, road mapping, forecasting, foresight, and assessment, which together comprise what is known as TFA, or technology future analysis. Cumulatively, these aforementioned methods have each been individually developed and are now converging through practice, just as technological advancements and their integration into commerce are converging. Also, the advancement of TFA nearly mirrors the manner in which social contexts are blending with, evolving and being evolved by technology usage. The implications of these developments are enormous. TFA can aid in informing policymakers about the advantages and/or disadvantages of technologies (such as devices used in healthcare, for instance), while it can also inform developers and scientists regarding the anticipated success of particular products being designed.

Conclusion

Social Forecasting (SF) and Technology Assessment (TA) are two principles that are becoming increasingly useful and relevant in today’s technologically advanced and rapidly changing business, political and social climates. SF is used to better understand KPI and therefore predict the success of potential products based upon social receptivity. This information is generally gleaned by collecting feedback from potential users and customers through data mining or in a virtual format. TA is used to evaluate how well technologies are functioning and meet various organizational needs and intentions. In this way, SF and TA can be used in tandem to determine the overall market receptivity towards and potential success of, future technologies being developed and introduced.

References

Banta, D. (2009). What is technology assessment? International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 25(S1), 7-9. doi:10.1017/s0266462309090333

Cooperative Systems. (2018, September 11). Why is an initial technology assessment so important? Retrieved from https://coopsys.com/why-initial-technology-assessment-important/

Decision Resources Group. (2018). How is real-world evidence used in health technology assessment? Decision Resources Group. Retrieved from https://decisionresourcesgroup.com/drg-blog/real-world-evidence-used-health-technology-assessment/

Hennen, L. (2012). Why do we still need participatory technology assessment? Poiesis & Praxis, 9(1-2), 27-41. doi:10.1007/s10202-012-0122-5

Ivanov, A. (2011, December 21). The rise of social forecasting: How employees help management make better decisions. CMS Wire. Retrieved from https://www.cmswire.com/cms/social-business/the-rise-of-social-forecasting-how-employees-help-management-make-better-decisions-013870.php

Krishnamurthy, P. (2010). Social forecasting - Relevance in strategic planning for corporate sector. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1632506

Russell, A. W., Vanclay, F. M., & Aslin, H. J. (2010). Technology assessment in social context: The case for a new framework for assessing and shaping technological developments. Im-pact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 28(2), 109-116. doi:10.3152/146155110x498843

Science Direct. (2018). Technology assessment - an overview. ScienceDirect Topics. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/technology-assessment

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. (2004). Techno-logical Forecasting and Social Change, 71(3), 287-303. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004