Analysis of the Political Issue of Brexit

The odd term Brexit has been all over the news lately this refers to a referendum very recently held in Great Britain regarding whether Great Britain should withdraw from the European Union (Britain + exit = Brexit). The essay will be organized into four parts. The first part will provide an overview of the creation of the European Union itself in order to provide some background context on the issue of Brexit. The second part will consider a tragic murder that occurred in Great Britain as a result of the controversy surrounding Brexit. The third part will discuss the Brexit referendum itself and its results. Finally, the fourth part will reflect on the implications of the results of the referendum for Great Britain and for the world.  

Creation of the European Union

To start with, then, it is worth discussing the nature of the European Union. This is what the European Union has had to say about its own history: "The European Union is set up with the aim of ending the frequent bloody wars between neighbours, which culminated in the Second World War. As of 1950, the European Coal and Steel Community begins to unite European countries economically and politically in order to secure lasting peace. The six founding countries are France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands" (paragraph 2). The European Union has consistently expanded over time, with Great Britain having joined the organization in the year 1973. Since the decades of its inception, then, the European Union essentially met with success with respect to achieving its end of a unified Europe. 

The past several years, though, have placed a great deal of strain on the European Union. For one thing, the recent global economic recession put enormous strain on the economy of Europe, with some nations faring a lot worse than others; and this caused several nations to begin to re-evaluate whether economic participation in the European Union was in fact really in their own best interests. Moreover, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have produced a refugee crisis, with different European nations having different responses to this problem; and this has also placed stain on the concept of a unified Europe. As Dempsey has pointed out, for example, German Chancellor Merkel adopted one of the most liberal stances on refugee immigration ever for her own nation. But the implication was that the rest of the European Union would then have to adopt a similar policy, and it would seem that many people in Britain and other nations resented this fact. Such resentment contributed significantly to the campaign in favor of Brexit, insofar Brexit is premised on a return to an old nationalism with closed borders.  

Murder of Jo Cox

One of the tragedies associated with the controversy surrounding Brexit was the murder of Jo Cox, a British Member of Parliament. Cox passionately believed in the European Union and thus campaigned tirelessly against the Brexit referendum. There is every reason to believe that Cox was murdered specifically because of her opposition to Brexit. As Caesar has reported, "the man charged with her murder . . . is reported to have shouted 'Britain first' as he attacked Cox, and gave his name in court as 'death to traitors, freedom for Britain'" (paragraph 3). Given that this is the case, it would not be unreasonable to identify Cox as martyr for the cause of a unified Europe. This tragic event also serves as a reminder of how passionately at least some people believed in or against Brexit: in this case, such belief became quite literally a life or death matter to the persons involved. 

It was almost impossible to consider the death of Jo Cox to be unrelated to the issue of Brexit. To quote Caesar again: "The memorial was an ostensibly apolitical event, but the difficulties of depoliticizing such a charged gathering were evident from the start;" and although her widower Brendan attempted to keep the matter at a personal level, it was not possible to truly memorialize his wife without making direct references to what she so passionately lived for, and what she in the end died for (paragraph 5). Indeed, the fact that an opponent of Brexit would be murdered for her views, and that a supporter of Brexit would actually be willing to kill in the name of his own views, gave many people of a stark picture of what exactly was at stake in the referendum vote. A vote against Brexit came to be seen as a vote in favor of compassion and open-mindedness; a vote in favor of Brexit came to be seen as a vote in favor of bigotry and closed-mindedness.  

The Referendum on Brexit

The actual Brexit referendum was a popular vote conducted nation-wide across Great Britain; the United States has comparable events only at the state level and not at the national level. The vote came out in favor of Brexit—that is, in favor of Great Britain leaving the European Union. One of the main aspects of this result was that it was a total reversal of popular expectations until the last couple hours of the vote. As Frum as related: "I said goodnight to a gloomy party of Leave-minded Londoners a few minutes after midnight. The paper ballots were still being counted by hand. Only the British overseas territory of Gibraltar had reported final results. Yet the British overseas territory of Gibraltar had reported final results. Yet the assumption of a Remain victory filled the room" (paragraph 1). However, this proves to not be the case: when all the votes were finally counted, the results indicated a close, 52/48 win for the Leave cause; the popular mandate was for Great Britain to exit from the European Union. 

One thing people will probably be debating for some time is how the pollsters got the results so wrong; most of them anticipated a comfortable win for the cause of Remain. As Duncan has reported, "Polling companies came under intense scrutiny after they failed to call the general election in 2015. . . . Bookmakers also got the EU referendum wrong. Odds last week put remain around 1-4, implying an 80% probability of a victory for the pro-EU camp" (paragraph 7). This failure of the polls is disconcerting insofar as it implies that there are factors influencing contemporary politics in Great Britain and elsewhere that are currently under the radar of the people who are supposed to be professionals at figuring such things out. The situation suggests that the very nature of politics itself may have somewhat changed over the course of the past few years, and that the professionals will need to work on learning to perceive and interpret these changes if they are to stay relevant over the course of the coming times. 

Reflection on Implications

One of the most direct implications of the results of the Brexit referendum was the resignation of the British Prime Minister David Cameron. Roberts has put the matter has bluntly as possible: "Cameron is in danger of going down in history as the most disastrous British Prime Minister since Lord North lost the 13 colonies in the American War of Independence more than 200 years ago" (paragraph 1). Cameron was a passionate advocate of the Remain cause, which means that this defeat in the referendum is particularly humiliating for him. Moreover, questions are now being asked with regard to how and why Cameron was ever even stupid enough to promise a popular referendum on this matter in the first place. It would seem that Cameron did this primarily as a political ploy to appease his opponents. It was not meant to turn into a real political conflict; and it certainly was not meant to produce a decision in favor of Great Britain actually leaving the European Union. 

Moreover, as if to add insult to injury, the results of the Brexit referendum could actually presage the collapse of Great Britain itself. Great Britain, also known as the United Kingdom, has a distinctive political structure, whereby the four individual nations of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are united together into the single political entity of Great Britain. An analysis of the Brexit referendum, though, shows that it was primarily only England that voted strongly in favor of leaving the European Union; and in contrast, both Scotland and Northern Ireland were strongly in favor of remaining within the European Union. This sets up an internal division within Great Britain itself; and it may revive independence movements in Scotland and Northern Ireland, insofar as it would now be impossible for these nations to belong to both Great Britain and the European Union at the same time. There is of course a deep irony in this turn of events: Great Britain wanted to dissolve the unity of Europe, but it may now simply end of dissolving its own unity instead.

There are also strong economic implications that emerge from the decision of Great Britain to leave the European Union. As Frum has pointed out, the vote in favor of Brexit was strongly driven by a nativist sensibility that led many British people to feel that they were being crowded out of their own and that a more globalized world was not really in their own best interests. Seen from a very local and narrow perspective, these people may have been somewhat justified in feeling this way about their own lives. However, this misses a broader macro-level economic perspective on what it really means for Great Britain to withdraw from an entity that is as economically powerful as the European Union. Among other things, the value of the British pound crashed shortly after the results of the vote were in. It is possible that this may simply be a precursor to the restoration of dynamic but the issue is complex, and the long-term consequences remain to be seen. 

Looking beyond Great Britain itself, the result of the Brexit referendum has disconcerting implications for all other modern nations as well. In particular, there would seem to be uncanny parallels between the driving forces underlying Brexit and the driving forces underlying the Trump campaign for the presidency within the United States. As Chideya has written: "Trump voters and Brexit supporters do share some common political concerns—a sense that it's necessary to protect borders, culture and the economic interests of native-born majority-culture citizens" (paragraph 5). The real concern is not that the results of the Brexit vote in Great Britain will directly embolden Americans to act in favor of similar interests. Rather, the issue is that the results of the Brexit vote seem to be emblematic of a broader political ethos that is in the process of seizing the globe. Similar conservative movements, for example, have been underway in France and Austria as well. The Brexit vote is thus just one dramatic instance of a broader zeitgeist in play during these times—a zeitgeist that may or may not be highly disconcerting, depending on one's own political persuasions. 

Conclusion

In summary, the present essay has consisted of a discussion of the Brexit referendum that was recently held within Great Britain. The essay has considered the creation of the European Union, a tragic murder that occurred in relation to Brexit, the actual results of the Brexit referendum, and the implications of these results for Great Britain and the world. A main conclusion that has been drawn here is that the decision of Great Britain to leave the European Union must not be understood as an isolated event; rather, it must be seen as one manifestation of a broader conservative and nativist sensibility that is in play within the context of the global political scene today. If people, including people in America, are not careful, similar results could be produced here and elsewhere as well.

Works Cited

Caesar, Ed. "Jo Cox, the Brexit, and the Politics of Murder." New Yorker. 24 Jun. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-politics-of-murder-in-britain>. 

Chideya, Farai. "What Donald Trump Loves about the Brexit." FiveThirtyEight. 28 Jun. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-donald-trump-loves-about-the-brexit/>.

Dempsey, Judy. "Merkel and the Unraveling of Europe." Carnegie Europe, 25 Feb. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=62880>. 

Duncan, Pamela. "How the Pollsters Got It Wrong on the EU Referendum." Guardian. 24 Jun. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close>. 

European Union. "The History of the European Union." Author, n.d. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://europa.eu/about-eu/eu-history/index_en.htm>. 

Frum, David. "Why Britain Left." The Atlantic. 24 Jun. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/brexit-eu/488597/>. 

Roberts, J. M. "Brexit Could Lead to the Breakup of the U.K." MarketWatch. 24 Jun. 2016. Web. 28 Jun. 2016. <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-brexit-could-lead-to-the-breakup-of-the-united-kingdom-2016-04-24>.