On the Ending Trends

This reflection paper is about the article entitled “The New Population Bomb: The Four Megatrends That Will Change the World”, written by Jack A. Goldstone. The paper will explore some of the factors the author believes might contribute to worldwide population redistributions, a dynamic shift in wealth distribution and world superpowers, the systemic repercussions of increasingly accelerated urbanization in countries that today are considered third world countries, and the effects of individual nation’s aging populations on their economic solvency. Ultimately, Goldstone predicts a coming shift in the political and economic composition of the globe.

One of the fundamental explanations in support of Goldstone’s writings as concern the worldwide shift in political superpowers lies in his reliance on the statistical work of economists and political demographers. Incorporating estimates of various countries’ populations’ increases and shrinkages, the author contends that regions like North America, Asia, and Europe, in the ensuing decades, will no longer hold the political and militaristic sway that they have in decades past. As a result of aging populations, declining birthrates of younger generations, and decreasing levels of GDP relative to younger, more active, and more urbanizing developing countries, nations that have for the better part of the 20th century been considered political giants might be dwarfed by economies with better and more consistent rates of growth, economically and demographically.

In particular, Goldstone asserts that certain nations’ aging populations will have a significant impact on the economic and political decline of those countries. With countries like South Korea estimated to experience an increase in the population of individuals over the age of 60 of nearly 150% by 2050, and Europe projected to experience increases in its over-60 population of almost 50%, Goldstone suggests that the corresponding decrease in working-age populations will be one of the most significant contributing factors to these nations’ economic decline. Additionally, with the United States poised to experience a decline in the growth of the working-age population from 62% over the last four decades to only 15% going forward, it becomes clear why the author is so content in his prediction of future shifts in the political composition of the globe. This sentiment is compounded when one understands that nations like the United States, doubly impacted by decreases in growth of working populations and increases in elder populations will be stymied by younger, more competitive economies.

Moreover, Goldstone’s assessment of the expected growth of Islamic countries highlights some interesting points concerning the future economic and political stability of regions like North Africa and the Middle East, as well as the systemic spillover into more historically developed countries. Presenting estimates of worldwide population growth, Goldstone asserts that 70% of the total population expansion is set to occur in only 24 countries that the World Bank currently has classified as either lower, or lower-middle income countries—nations where the average working individual earns less than $4,000 per year. Despite the current economic instability of these nations, the unprecedented levels of population growth will not only contribute to a dramatic increase in the strength of those countries’ economies but will also serve as a means for such countries to bolster their political prowess on the world stage. Most importantly, because 28 of the world’s 48 fastest-growing countries are predominantly Muslim, or have at least a Muslim minority in excess of one third of their total population, Goldstone reiterates the importance for Western-Eastern relations to improve if nations like the United States and Europe wish to remain at all relevant, politically or economically, in the coming years.

Lastly, Goldstone illustrates what he asserts is going to be widespread global urbanization and some of the potential dangers that such a phenomenon might entail. Pointing to the fact that many of the most urbanized countries are situated in low-income regions on the world, Goldstone extrapolates his theories on global political and economic shifts. Furthermore, because such rapid expansions will occur in low-income areas, the potential for crime-lords and gangs to manifest in such areas will increase exponentially in relation to a particular regions’ degree of growth. Ultimately, the author contends that certain responsibilities lie with organizations like NATO if certain countries which currently occupy spots on the world’s superpower podium wish to avoid being relegated to annals of history. Considerations for the inclusion of third-world nations like Brazil and China into such alliances are imperative to the future global stability of major economic regions such as those in North America and Europe. Ultimately, Goldstone insists that future global political and economic stability is contingent on managing workforce populations, the aging demographic, and relations with Muslim populous developing countries.

In the end, it seems that Goldstone’s predictions regarding the future of global economies and populations is thoroughly researched, if perhaps slightly skewed. While data concerning the estimated growth of populations, both aging and those of prime working age, seem nigh irrefutable, there other suggestions that simply do not seem viable. For example, his suggestion that a percentage of the elder populations in the developed countries emigrate to areas like Latin America or Africa to mitigate the burden placed on the developed countries’ economies seems somewhat farfetched. Additionally, making the singular recommendation that Turkey be granted membership into the European Union is moderately over simplistic in the assumption that doing so would ultimately demonstrate the EU’s commitment to Muslims when much of the world would agree that such is already the case. Still, the article was exceptional in that it demonstrated the pending shifts in economic and political powers through changes in the compositions of countries’ economies, workforce populations, and degrees of urbanization.