An Analysis of the Campaign of Jane Johnson Miller

Jane Johnson Miller, a conservative Republican from west Texas, is planning on running for governor. She is a self-starter who believes in traditional American values such as integrity, work ethic, and faith in order to make her mark on the world. She believes in the usual Republican views on things, and is pro-life, anti-gun control, and pro-death penalty. The exception to this is her stance on alternative energy, which, she believes, deserves every resource so that Texas can be a leader in that field just as Texas is currently a leader in oil. Thanks to these values, as well as the state where she is running for governor, her chances of winning are solid. However, she requires management and analysis of both her campaign and her demographics to which she will be appealing in order to stand the greatest chance of victory, and this paper will examine these in detail.

First, it is necessary to examine the geographic areas Miller will want to focus on the most in order to succeed. Luckily for her, the vast majority of Texas is heavily right-wing. This will give her an advantage in most counties save for some of the ones with a heavier population of Hispanics, who generally tend to err more on the side of democratic than most others in the state. For this reason, the southernmost counties with medium-sized cities such as Brownsville will be difficult areas for Miller to attain victory in (Stiles, 2010). In addition, many of the western counties in Texas share much closer proximity with the similarly left-winged New Mexico (for similar reasons as above) which means that, ironically, Miller will have a difficult time on her own home turf of West Texas (Stiles, 2010). Considering how few these spots of democrats are, it is best not to focus on those two in particular. However, two of the largest population areas in Texas, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, and Houston, all voted for the democratic candidate, Bill White, in the 2010 gubernatorial election (Stiles, 2010). This means that these cities, with huge populations, comparatively speaking, could be huge problems for Miller, and, for this reason, she should make every effort to campaign in these cities and make her beliefs well known, especially for the Hispanic population, which very well could win or lose this election for her. To do this, she must stress the importance of alternative energy to them, and let them know how important they are to not just her campaign, but to the livelihood of the state as a whole.

Considering the demographic makeup of Texas, the more hardcore Republicans are the most likely to vote, with hardcore Democrats not far behind. It should be noted that there is an oppressive culture of Republicanism that permeates many parts of Texas, especially medium and smaller towns, that forms a sense of community and camaraderie amongst them, which means that communities will oftentimes vote in droves together. Appealing to these communities is key to Miller's victory. For this reason, she must focus on these Republican communities by reminding them of her upbringing and values she holds close to her heart (values that are most likely echoed by the Republican community). For Democratic counties, she must focus on her commitment to change, especially in regard to alternative energy.

Considering Miller is operating in Texas, a traditionally Republican and, to a point, independent and exclusionary state, she will have the overwhelming support of whites, especially older whites, who tend to overwhelmingly vote Republican. Hispanics will, as stated above, not support her as much due to their traditionally left-wing stances on most issues. However, one area that could prove extremely useful to Miller is the economic climate in Texas, especially given the recent hardships in that regard over the past few years. One of the main reasons that Bill White was successful during his six-year career as governor of Houston is because he was able to appeal to the Republican business environment and citizenry (Faletta and Taylor, 2011). Considering Miller's present situation, she should make every effort to appeal to this same demographic, even though she herself is Republican. Houston (and most other major cities in Texas) is largely left-wing, and appealing to the business side of these Democrats is a necessity for Miller to succeed. It should be noted that Miller need not waste her time with the wealthy, as they, being predominantly Republican in Texas, will likely vote for her anyway. It is the middle-class that holds the most weight here, especially in the economic department.

In politics, it is important to focus one's effort on specific issues, especially ones the community cares deeply about. For this reason, it is prudent for Miller to narrow down her speeches to three main issues. The first and most important is the utilization of leadership. Texas is a state that is quickly coming apart at the seams, thanks to the sharp increase in Hispanic voters, who will doubtless dismantle the Republican stranglehold on the state unless something is done about it. Miller should stress that the community come together and work as one to improve the state, especially in the economic department. On that note, Miller should focus on the issue of government interference with issues like health care, education, and employment. This is an age where people expect their government to step in and help, and many suspect this will be a prominent issue in upcoming elections (Masset, 2009). Miller should not make any specific promises in this regard but should vow to do all she can to improve the lives of every citizen of the state, regardless of race or political leanings. Lastly, Miller should focus on alternative energy as both an environmentally friendly solution (which appeals to Democratic sentiments) but also an economic stimulant (which appeals to Republican sentiments). This helps to reinforce Miller's image as a team player and self-starter who is truly looking out for the best interests of the citizens of Texas.

If Miller learned of a dispute an opponent suffered (in this case, a violent dispute with his wife), Miller would make this a campaign issue, but not a central one. Miller believes in total transparency in her career and is more than happy to disclose her status regarding her children and her divorce. This way, Miller would not be disclosing the details of her opponent's dispute just to smear them, but to ensure the Texas citizens are well-educated about both candidates. It has been proven through studies that a personal connection with the candidate is crucial to securing the vote of those who utilize "mental shortcuts" in order to decide which candidate they want to vote for (Schreiber, et al, 2010). This is especially important in Texas, which contains a large number of people willing to take these mental shortcuts. In fact, studies show that those with very little political knowledge can still find a candidate that matches their political preferences 75 percent of the time (Schreiber, et al, 2010). So not only does revealing Miller's opponent's dispute line up with her own personal values, but it also makes her statistically more likely to win the election, thanks to votes from people who rely on these mental shortcuts in order to make their voting decision.

While Miller faces something of an uphill battle with her campaign, thanks to an increasing Hispanic population and an overall slump in the economy (even in Texas), her victory is still more than likely given the overall political climate of Texas. While Hispanics are an increasing demographic, the Republican presence in Texas continues to be strong, and many Hispanics are even switching over to being Republicans in light of this. Texas is a state about tradition and work ethic, and, considering Miller's background, she fits this paradigm perfectly. She can use the political history of her family (her father, Joe Johnson, was governor many years ago) as well as her own entrepreneurial feats to make a strong case for her own election. If she does these two things effectively, she stands a very strong chance of victory.

References

Faletta, J. P., & Taylor, J. (2011, February). Swimming against a red tide? Bill White, Rick Perry and the Tea Party movement. In Bill White, Rick Perry and the Tea Party Movement (May 02, 2011). Western Political Science Association 2011 Annual Meeting Paper.

Masset, R. (2009). Who is Leading Texas? Economy Elections Energy Education Environment, 22.

Schreiber, D., Pinto, N., Rogers, P., & DiCarlo, J. (2010). Winning faces: Biologically inspired vision algorithm predicts election results. Available at SSRN 1701939.

Stiles, Matt. "2010 Texas Governor's Race Maps | The Texas Tribune." 2010 Texas Governor's Race Maps, 10 Nov. 2010. 26 Nov. 2013. Retrieved from www.texastribune.org/2010/11/05/2010-texas-governors-race-maps/.