The Ukrainian Crisis and New Form Revolution

The current circumstances regarding the Ukrainian Crisis and the New Form Revolution taking place in Ukraine are quite pressing and increasingly problematic. So what created these circumstances and why are they escalating? To answer that, more details must be presented and analyzed and will be performed using OSINT (open-source intelligence information that is open to the public sphere). The current materials available regarding the situation are largely found in current events news sources. However, there are other sources that may offer deeper insight into what is transpiring and why than perhaps the news sources offer. The purpose of this paper is to uncover what is available through OSINT type resources.

The resources that will be used in this paper include the CIA World Factbook, Ukrainian news sources, World Affairs Journal, European Leadership Network, USA Today, and the New York Times. The first source explored will be the CIA World Factbook in order to establish a firm foundation upon why the unrest began and what has contributed to the explosion of the crisis and instigated a new form of revolution. In this source, a history, timeline and root cause will be identified.

CIA World Factbook describes the background of the crisis in the Ukraine as having been originated from boundary challenges that date back to 1997. Unratificatioin and negotiations of the delimitation treaty with Belarus has been ongoing due to financial disputes. This has subsequently reduced security along the border of Russia and the Ukraine. There was an attempt in 2003 to rectify the boundary, but even with an agreement, the resolution has yet to materialize. Other factors that have played a role involve joint customs posts with Moldova through the Transnistria Region. The with this is that it is under control of a peacekeeping mission that includes Ukrainian, Moldavian, and Russian troupes. Romania has continued to hold opposition to the reopening of canal navigation that stretches from the Black Sea to the Danube. There are also 35,000 refugees in the Ukraine who cannot get citizenship, which has also contributed to the uprising. Human trafficking is also problematic, especially in rural areas where employment is bleak. The overall challenge is that by having trade relations for goods being hampered by the border challenges, the unemployment rate is high, the excessive poverty and refugee status problems contribute to the increased issues of human trafficking and illegal drug trade. Poor employment prospects are created by the border and canal navigation issue. Without this being rectified, the people have no hope for humane living conditions. Desperation becomes common and increases in illegal activity are guaranteed.

According to Steven Pifer, as of January 2014, the Russian President feels that the efforts currently taking place, known as the new form revolution, are of western influence and not instigated by the Ukrainians themselves. The concern for Russia is that this will place the Ukraine out of Russia’s sphere of influence, which is of deep concern for Russia.

Large demonstrations against President Yanukovych have run for more than two months since the Ukrainian government passed up the opportunity to sign an association agreement with the European Union. They have spread beyond Kyiv to cities across the country and evolved into a broader protest against the president…… The crisis in Ukraine must be resolved first and foremost by Ukrainians, and the primary responsibility needs to stay with them.

Protests have continued to spread, and demonstrators have shown increased confidence and pride in their Ukrainian nationalism as of late. This contributes to the fears felt by the Kremlin and Mr. Yanukovych.

Actions taken by Russia this past week have not gone unnoticed. As a result of the suspected fears of the Kremlin, Russia has threatened to move in on the Ukraine and stated that its sole purpose for infiltrating the country is for the protection of Russian citizens only.

Vladimir Putin’s surprise decision to ask for a Russian-style War Powers resolution from his parliament dramatically ups the ante in the Ukraine crisis and positions Russia for full-scale military action. It also signals Putin’s commitment to use all necessary means—many of which have already been in use in Crimea—to keep Ukraine in Russia’s orbit.

It appears that the concerns brought up in January are proving to be true. As seen with what happened to Georgia, Russia knows to sweep in and takeover, especially with a country as small as the Ukraine and as vulnerable as it is. There isn’t much for them to fight back such a super-power military. Concerns that the west isn’t doing enough to step in have been brought to the table, but action and decision regarding steps to take are still under consideration and strategy. So what are the citizens doing? Are they hapless victims waiting to be saved by the west or are they actively taking part in their own emancipation and rights? There have been several weeks of protest in Independence Square located in central Kyiv. It “looked to many observers like yet another manifestation of the ongoing struggle for ideological and geopolitical hegemony between Russia and the West.” This clearly marks a new evolutionary stage in independence and establishment as a sovereign state for the Ukraine. This protest was new. It’s not like the Orange Revolution as experienced in the past, but a centrally located, self-regulated and organized protest in the capital city. It appears that the citizens truly are rising and are in a stronger coalition than in years past. This is partially a result of the disappearance of President Yanukovych in February 2014 . The transitionary status of the Ukrainian government, the corruption experienced over the years and the dismal prospects and conditions for Ukrainians and refugees located in the Ukraine are prime conditions for unrest even under the best circumstances. It is clear that action by the people was ripe. Action by Russia was ripe. Action by the European and US nations remains to be seen. Concerns for the implications of inaction by the west are rising.

What are the implications for the west and the rest of the world if nothing should be reinforced by non-Russian entities? “These tasks demand that the (United States) president designate a senior point-person for coordinating Ukraine policy in all its complexity. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, one of America’s ablest diplomats and an old Russia hand, is the obvious choice.” The Ukraine is without a president, is economically destroyed, and the people are in clear distress. What seems to be feeding the reality is that the ousted President Yanukovych was apparently in alignment with the people of the Ukraine, but not in alignment with the wealthy elite of the Ukraine. This is what the Russian Times state is the real issue.

The EU has made the mistake of competing with the Russians on their terms, without knowing who's who and what's what. Any attempt to overbid Russia when it comes to natural gas prices or dollar loans would have been a futile attempt. Moscow has shaken the money tree, simple as that. Instead the EU should have realized that the road to Ukraine does not lead through Yanukovych, Tymoshenko or the Ukrainian opposition (at least not until now). Instead it leads through the billionaires actually controlling the country. No one wanted the EU to make a side deal with the billionaires.

The real issue isn’t about the people, it appears that the real concern, for the Ukraine and for the rest of the world is the corruption that has continuously plagued the Ukraine at the hands of the wealthy elite who aim to manipulate their power in order to benefit from the squalor created by their greed. How does one address such an issue? Will the people’s revolution be able to overcome the corruption created by those who appear to be above the law and heavily influential on a global scale? The same can be said in many countries during these turbulent times. The uprising of the masses to take back their countries and their economic survival from the hands of those with little regard for the conditions required to control the resources essential to survival, while simultaneously being the key to power and wealth. Perhaps a Parliamentary Government really would solve the conditions, which was the original solution after the Orange Revolution. Will Russia’s invasion be the solution that actually solves the problem? Russia solved a similar issue with their own governmental decisions in years past. The reaction for the European Union and the United States may impact results, but at this juncture, the corruption is much more complex than a mere military action may be able to adequately address. The citizens are not the crux of the problem.

Bibliography

Andras Jenei. “Ukraine Shackled by Revolution – and Oligarchs.” The Moscow Times. February 28, 2014. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukraine-shackled-by-revolution--and-oligarchs/495411.html

CIA World Factbook. Ukraine. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/up.html

Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss. “Putin’s Reckless Ukraine Gambit.” Politico Magazine. March 1, 2014.

Nadia Diuk. “Euromaidan: Ukraine’s Self-Organizing Revolution.” World Affairs March/April 2014. http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/euromaidan-ukraine%E2%80%99s-self-organizing-revolution

Nathaniel Copsey, “The Colour Revolutions in the Former Soviet Republics: Ukraine.” Contemporary Russia and Eastern Europe Series. Routledge. Pp. 30-44. http://www.academia.edu/1098375/The_Colour_Revolutions_in_the_Former_Soviet_Republics_Successes_and_Failures

Olga Rudenko, Protesters in Ukraine capital: 'Hands off, Russia.' USA Today, March 1, 2014.

Sabra Ayres. “Does Ukraine's best option for the future lie in its past?” CS Monitor Online. February 3, 2014. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0203/Does-Ukraine-s-best-option-for-the-future-lie-in-its-past-video

Stephen Pifer, “A Ukraine in Crisis Between Russia and the West.” European Leadership Network. January, 13, 2014. http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/a-ukraine-in-crisis-between-russia-and-the-west_1174.html

“Ukraine crisis: Two days to form new government.” BBC News Online. February 23, 2014. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26317217

Yuras Karmanau. “Pro-Russian Rally in Crimea Decries Kiev ‘Bandits.’” Associated Press. February 25, 2014. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE_PROTESTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT